Ice cream or halo-halo, buko juice or sago at gulaman, iced coffee or iced matcha—Pinoys could debate about the best summer refresher until the cows come home, but they can also agree that every summer is hotter than the last. Is that a bad thing? Well, that depends on how often you shower throughout the day to stay cool. 

But jokes aside, those multiple showers a day might soon become an absolute necessity, as local and global climate experts warn that our upcoming summers are about to push past the limits of comfort. 

On Red Alert: 86% chance of record-breaking heat in the next five years

According to a UK Met Office report shared by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), the next five years are set to bring global average temperatures hovering at or near record highs, with forecasts of 1.3°C to 1.9°C. There’s also an 86% chance that one year between 2026 and 2030 will surpass 2024, setting a new record as the hottest year ever documented.

“There is an El Niño predicted for the end of 2026, which increases the chances of the following year, 2027, being the next record-breaking year,” said Dr. Leon Hermanson, the lead author of the report.

WMO’s State of the Global Climate 2025 report also revealed that 2015-2025 was the hottest 11-year period, with 2025 ranking as the second- or third-hottest year on record, at about 1.43 °C.

As UN Secretary-General António Guterres stressed: “The State of the Global Climate is in a state of emergency. Planet Earth is being pushed beyond its limits. Every key climate indicator is flashing red.”

Philippines braces for impending El Niño as PAGASA issues alert

In the Philippines, the DOST-PAGASA has officially raised its ENSO Alert and Warning System to El Niño Alert in April, following expert assessments indicating a 79% chance of El Niño emerging in the June-July-August 2026 season and likely to persist until early 2027.

“During an El Niño event, there is an increased possibility of drier-than-usual conditions, which can lead to negative impacts such as droughts and dry spells in some parts of the country,” read the DOST-PAGASA’s statement.

DOST-PAGASA also noted above-normal rainfall conditions over the western section of the country during the Southwest Monsoon (Habagat) season.

The brewing threat of a ‘Super’ El Niño

The Philippines is no stranger to El Niño. It’s a trial by heat and fire—both literally and figuratively—that transforms the country into a land of droughts, skyrocketing electric bills, and water shortages, testing the absolute limits of Pinoys. Although El Niño hasn’t officially started, the country is already experiencing severe heat and dryness.

As if that wasn’t bad enough, a recent report from the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Climate Prediction Center said there’s about a 50% chance of a rare “Super” El Niño developing later in the year.

Scientists have documented three official “super” El Niño events: 1982-1983, 1997-1998, and 2015-2016, with the latter associated with a record-breaking hurricane season in the central North Pacific, a water shortage in Puerto Rico, and a drought in Ethiopia.

“A ‘super’ El Niño is not a term we subscribe to, but it does underpin the fact that this is likely to be a significant event. Scientists are telling us that this could be the strongest El Niño event this so far century, comparable to the notable El Niño event in 1998,” said Grahame Madge, climate science communicator at the Met Office.

Is the Philippines ready for the worst of El Niño?

Although “super” El Niños are rare, the possibility is always there—and with the Philippines being a country that’s been grappling with El Niño for as long as it remembers, the stakes couldn’t be higher for Filipinos. In fact, the recent rotational brownouts in Luzon should serve as a stark reality check. Just imagine the kind of systemic paralysis a full-blown “Super” El Niño would bring.

The Department of Environment and Natural Resources (DENR) said the National Water Resources Board is assessing several water allocation policies and reduction measures for domestic and irrigation purposes.

“What we are looking at is a potentially serious water problem in the early part of 2027, so we have roughly six months to identify new water sources,” said Acting Secretary Atty. Juan Miguel “Mitch” Cuna.

Cuna also urged the public, local government units, and businesses to conserve water by reporting leaks and avoiding wastage.

Ultimately, Pinoys are looking at a full-on climate endurance test. The real question is: can our current mitigation strategies take the heat, or will we be left scrambling for solutions when the taps run completely dry?

Sources: National Geographic, World Meteorological Organization